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A changed world
International commerce needs firmer underpinnings
What is the biggest threat to world trade? Stressed supply chain managers might say new logistical bottlenecks that have seen the cost of shipping rocket recently. Macroeconomists could offer demand change, notably the depressive effect of a pos sible renewed pandemic. But those taking a longer view might point to the new order of trade policy, which involves more in timidation, discrimination and ultimately, isolation. In short, the very foundations of the multilateral trading system are under as sault, from several directions at once.
Some of this reflects adaptation to changed political objec tives, such as new concerns to respond to human-rights abuses or to climate change. A back-of-the-envelope calculation based on estimates by the oecd suggests that a carbon tariff based on a CO2 price of $75 a tonne may represent an average extra cost of only around 2%. That seems manageable. When the risk of shocks is rising, whether from natural disasters, pandemics or the willing ness of foreigners to weaponise their economic clout, it makes sense to work up strategies for coping. That could mean diversifi- cation through trade deals, constructive co-ordination over stan dards, or sensible stockpiling.
But as well-intentioned governments try to co-ordinate new ways to add non-trade goals to commerce, the risk of mismanage ment or the proliferation of special interests is high. Economic nationalism crafted behind trade barriers could coddle compa nies, impede technology transfer or limit the profits available for research and development. Subsidies could distort trade flows and generate tensions between allies as they fight over who should bear the cost of supply that is greater than demand. Over the long run, the extra anxiety around international supply chains could mean that national borders come to matter more in practice than they should do in theory.
Push all this to its limits, and there is a risk that the forces of globalisation could even go into reverse. That supply chains now so often criss-cross international borders actually raises the cost of trade barriers. If the eu had cut off vaccine exports to Britain in early 2021 amid a heated row over scarce supplies, it might have jeopardised crucial inputs for its own production. But that could be changing. Reshoring supply chains may, ironically, increase the likelihood of new trade barriers in future as it makes them lesscostly. And that could raise the incentive to start unravelling to day’s close economic relationships.
Questions that need answering
If global leaders are to prove the trade pessimists wrong,they need to offer clearer answers to three big questions. First, where are the limits to what trade tools can achieve? Sometimes there is a ten dency “to overload the boat a bit”, comments Mr Dombrovskis,the eu’s trade commissioner, warning of the need for a balance be tween the idea of setting new tests fortrade deals and the feasibil ity of passing them. Some humility when it comes to unilateral ism may be in order. If countries trying to export their standards or to exert their power are only a slice of suppliers’ markets, they may do little to produce change in rich countries while disrupting business in poor ones.
Second, what happens when the increasingly complex stew of non-trade objectives has internal contradictions? Those eager for greater resilience or most worried about human-rights abuses may argue for trade barriers against solar-panel imports, to shift sourcing from China. But that could conflict with short-run ef forts to fight climate change with cheap renewable energy. Ber-nard Hoekman, an academic at the European University Institute, who is leading a project on the effects of eu trade policy on non trade policy goals, warns of misdirected resources, away from aid that goes directly towards improved economic governance ortele coms and logistics links.
Third, how should the consequences of new trade barriers be managed and contained? That job was for some years done by the wto, which allowed limited retaliation if governments were in breach of their obligations. In its absence, governments should know that protection has consequences,if only in the form of pos sible retaliation. Since 2016, there is evidence of a rise in the share of global trade that is subject to trade restrictions, even excluding those related to the us-China trade war.
If and when answers to these three questions emerge, the trading system that they suggest may be quite like the one that is now slowly being dismantled. It ought to include mutually agreed rules overseen by independent arbiters, to deliver legitimacy and stability. It must allow clearly defined exceptions, to prevent abuse and allow adaptation. It needs to respect the use of trade tools to help deliver geopolitical, security, environmental and human-rights goals. But it should also recognise the risks of asking trade to do too much. And it would, logically, point to revitalising and reinforcing the wto, rather than undermining it further,as several members are continuing to do. 1. logistical adj. 组织上的，后勤方面的(relating to the careful organization of a complicated activity) (logistics n. 物流，后勤) rocket n. 火箭； v. 迅速增加，迅速成功(to rise extremely quickly or make extremely quick progress towards success) (He rocketed to fame in the film./ House prices are rocketing.) macroeconomist n. 宏观经济学家 notably adv. 尤其；显著地 (especially or most importantly; to an important degree, or in a way that can or should be noticed) (The newspapers are notably biased.) depressive adj. 抑郁的，压抑的 (depression n. 抑郁，萧条) intimidation n. 胁迫，威胁 discrimination n. 歧视 in short 总之 multilateral adj. 多边的，多国的 (bilateral 双边的) assault v.&n. 攻击
2.
reflect v. 反射；反映出(to show, express, or be a sign of sth)
深思，反省(to think carefully, especially about possibilities and opinions)
(The statistics reflect a change in people’s spending habits.)
adaptation to 适应
objective n. 目标； adj. 客观的
(Her main/prime objective now is simply to stay in power.)
back-of-the-envelope 粗略的
tariff [ˈtærɪf] n. 关税
manageable adj. 能应对的
clout n. 影响力，势力
work up 逐步建立，逐步发展
diversification n. 多样化 (diverse adj. 多样的)
constructive adj. 建设性的，有益的(if advice, criticism, or actions are constructive,
they are useful and intended to help or improve sth)
(She criticized my writing, but in a way that was very constructive.)
coordination n. 协调
sensible adj. 理智的，通情达理的(having or using good judgment; reasonable)
(a sensible answer/approach/compromise/option/person)
stockpiling n. 物资储备
3.
well-intentioned adj. 用意良好的(wanting to have good effects, but sometimes having bad effects that were not expected)
(Well-intentioned development projects can have unintended negative effects.)
proliferation n. 增生，扩散 (proliferate v.)
(Temperatures climbed more rapidly in the 20th century as the use of fossil fuels proliferated.)
craft v. 精心制作； n. 工艺
coddle v. 溺爱
impede [ɪmˈpiːd] vt. 阻碍 (impediment n.)
subsidy n. 补贴金，补助金
distort v. 扭曲(to change or affect sth, especially in a way that makes it worse)
bear the cost 承担费用 (bear the responsibility)
over the long run 从长远来看 (in the long term)
in practice 实际上，在实践中
in theory 理论上
(Why is it that on paper the drive for organization seems a sure shot for increasing productivity,
but in reality falls well short of what is expected?)
3.
well-intentioned adj. 用意良好的(wanting to have good effects, but sometimes having bad effects that were not expected)
(Well-intentioned development projects can have unintended negative effects.)
proliferation n. 增生，扩散 (proliferate v.)
(Temperatures climbed more rapidly in the 20th century as the use of fossil fuels proliferated.)
craft v. 精心制作； n. 工艺
coddle v. 溺爱
impede [ɪmˈpiːd] vt. 阻碍 (impediment n.)
subsidy n. 补贴金，补助金
distort v. 扭曲(to change or affect sth, especially in a way that makes it worse)
bear the cost 承担费用 (bear the responsibility)
over the long run 从长远来看 (in the long term)
in practice 实际上，在实践中
in theory 理论上
(Why is it that on paper the drive for organization seems a sure shot for increasing productivity,
but in reality falls well short of what is expected?)
4.
go into reverse 逆转， 往相反的方向发展
criss-cross adj.&v.&n.&adv. 纵横交错，交叉
cut off 切断，中断
amid [əˈmɪd] prep. 在…中间
heated adj. 加热的；激烈的 (a heated debate)
scarce adj. 稀少的，稀有的
jeopardise ['dʒepədaiz] v. 破坏，危害
reshoring n. 回流(moving a business based in a different country back to its original country)
incentive n. 动机，刺激(sth that encourages a person to do sth) (motivation/stimuli)
unravel v. 解开
5.
pessimist n. 悲观主义者 (pessimistic/optimistic adj.)
there is a tendency… 有…趋势，趋向…
overload v. 使负担过重，使超载
commissioner n. 委员，专员
warn of 警告，提醒
feasibility n. 可行性，可能性 (feasible adj.)
humility [hjuːˈmɪləti] n. 谦逊，谦卑
unilateralism n. 单边主义 (bilateral/multilateral)
be in order 合适，恰当
exert v. 施加(+authority/power/influence/pressure/control)
a slice of 一片，一份
disrupt v. 妨碍，扰乱(to prevent sth from continuing as usual or as expected)
(Heavy snow disrupted travel into the city this morning.)
6.
stew v. 炖煮的菜肴
internal adj. 内部的 (inside the body or mind)、
(The internal struggle with his conscience continued.)
(Humans have developed a much more complicated internal life as a result of language.)
contradiction n. 矛盾，不一致
eager for 渴望，迫切
resilience n. 弹力，恢复力
argue for 赞成，支持，论证
solar-panel n. 太阳能板
sourcing n. 来源
7.
contain v. 包容(to have sth inside or include sth as a part)；
遏制，阻止蔓延(to keep sth harmful within limits and not allow it to spread)
retaliation n. 报复，反击
in breach of 违反
obligation n. 义务，责任 (duty)
(You have a legal obligation to ensure your child receives an education.)
be subject to 受…影响(to have or experience a particular thing, especially sth unpleasant)
(Cars are subject to a high domestic tax.)
exclude v. 排除，不包含
8. dismantle v. 拆卸；废除 ought to 应该 mutually adv. 互相地 (mutual adj.) oversee v. 监管 arbiter n. 仲裁者，裁决人 legitimacy n. 合法性，合理性 exception n. 例外 revitalize v. 使复活， 使复兴 undermine v. 故意破坏， 削弱 (to make sb less confident, less powerful, or less likely to succeed, or to make sth weaker) (Criticism just undermines their confidence.)
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